Designing a Multi-Level Theory of Change

Overview

When planning to improve student learning, we often jump to actions and results, but understanding why those results happen, or don’t, is essential. A Theory of Change (ToC) helps educators and leaders uncover the root causes behind outcomes. It brings clarity to the “black box” between inputs and results by identifying the conditions and changes needed to succeed.

Developing a multi-level Theory of Change connects actions taken at the system, educator, and learner levels to help build coherence across initiatives and identify how strategies at each level reinforce each other.

Build Your Theory of Change

While a Theory of Change doesn’t have to be built linearly, we recommend following the steps below. We recommend beginning at the learning level to backward map.

Step 1: Choose the Level and the Team
Decide which level of change you’re focusing on:

• Learner: What will change for students?

• Educator: How will teaching practice shift?

• System: What supports or structures are needed?

Then, identify the right people to involve in designing your ToC, including those closest to the work or most impacted by it.

Step 2: Describe the Context
Outline where and how the work is happening. Include location, population, school or district characteristics, and other relevant factors.

Step 3: Identify the Target Group
Who is the initiative for? Be specific. Even if the strategy is meant for all learners, you may choose to prioritize a particular group (e.g., multilingual learners, students with IEPs) whose needs may vary in how strategies are approached.

Step 4: Define the Strategies
What actions will the target group take during the initiative? These may include instructional shifts, new learning models, or changes in resource use.

Step 5: Explain the Expected Changes
What do you believe will change as a result of the strategies? These changes could be:

• Behavioral (e.g., increased student engagement)

• Cognitive (e.g., improved problem-solving skills)

• Affective (e.g., greater sense of belonging)

Base this on your learning science framework or other research.

Step 6: List the Expected Outcomes
What results do you expect? Outcomes should be measurable and help you monitor progress. These could include:

• Academic achievement

• Course completion rates

• Social-emotional growth

• Increased educator retention

Step 7: Repeat and Align Across Levels
Create a ToC for each relevant level—system, educator, and learner. Review them together to ensure they align and support one another. For example:

• A learner-level ToC would focus on what students do differently and how their learning improves.

• A teacher-level ToC might emphasize professional learning that leads to instructional change.

• A system-level ToC might focus on scheduling or tech infrastructure to support teachers.

Your ToC should evolve with your work. Use it as a living document, revisiting it regularly as you learn what’s working and where adjustments are needed.

A strong multi-level ToC shows how system strategies enable teacher shifts that, in turn, lead to improved student learning. Each level should connect back to the learner and show how change happens across the whole system. You may not need a system or teacher-level ToC based on your work, but you should always know how your work affects students and their learning.